Tyler Cowen read Dean Baker's take on state pensions and says he prefers Josh Barro's more alarmed assessment. I read Barro's piece and was surprised to find that it agreed, in many respects, with Baker's piece, though the two articles had different emphases and different prescriptions.
In particular, they agree that the central question afflicting pension plans is the returns they'll see in coming years. Barro argues that the commonly quoted figures "understate the cost of benefits to be paid in the future by counting on high investment returns that may not materialize," while Baker argues that the gigantic shortfalls that some observers are now estimating are overstated and that pension funds can "reasonably assume" returns in the 7 percent range. It's worth noting that before the financial crisis, Baker was trying to sound the alarm about pension funds using overly rosy estimations of future returns, so it's difficult to accuse him of being overly bullish. That said, read David Leonhardt making the case for more pessimism on future returns.
The major disagreement comes over the question of what to do next. Barro argues that existing pension promises should be honored. "Short of defaulting on these debts," he writes, "the only way states can eliminate unfunded pension liabilities is to fund them." But going forward, he'd like to see states move to 401(k)-style programs, as that protects taxpayers from having to shell out more cash during economic downturns. Under the current system, he says, "state governments are long in the stock market on taxpayers’ behalf."
Baker strongly disagrees. He argues that the point of an actor such as the state, at least when it comes to pension policy, is that it has a long time horizon and so can ignore cyclical ups and downs in the stock market. "In principle," he writes, "state and local governments will exist into perpetuity, so a period in which the market is depressed need not be of great consequence." Add in, as Teresa Ghilarducci does, that "401(k) management and investment fees are three times higher" than traditional pension plans and "professionals who manage money in pooled pension funds usually get higher returns than workers who manage their own 401(k) accounts," and it's hard to argue that defined benefit plans should be done away with for states, though it's not hard to argue that they should be funded honestly and based on realistic projections for eventual returns. Felix Salmon agrees.
But the bottom line is that the correct questions to ask about pension plans are: 1) Are they estimating a realistic rate of return going forward? 2) If so, are they sufficiently funded? And 3) If not, what should be done? I think there's less disagreement about the underlying nature of the problem here than some people might think. The disagreements, rather, are about the country's likely economic performance going forward (as that will ultimately decide returns) and what our state pension system should look like in general.
One of the prime topics of conversation during NBA All Star Weekend is the league’s labor agreement or lack thereof.
The league is enjoying an unprecedented level of popularity and its future is bright. Midway through the 2010-11 season, the league's talent level is deeper than ever and many of the those talented players are just beginning their careers. The NBA’s marketing machine is world class and interest in the league is at an all-time high.
However its road to success is approaching a giant pothole – otherwise known as its next labor agreement — and to me we’re entering a fascinating point in league history.
Forbes Magazine has reported that 12 of the 30 NBA teams lost money last season. And NBA Commissioner David Stern, several weeks back, claimed that league owners were projecting a cumulative loss this season of approximately 350 million dollars.
Stern has declared that the current labor situation is untenable because the players are being paid too much guaranteed money. The players for their part are digging in and this labor dispute shows few if any signs of getting resolved anytime soon.
There is also one glaring problem that I personally feel the NBA needs to fix because, if you ask me, it’s the one negative the league has faced for as long as Stern has been commissioner. Each season, too many teams have zero chance of making the playoffs.
Let’s face it, if you’re a fan of the Timberwolves, Wizards, Nets and a bunch of other teams, you’re basically watching games to see the opposing team because your team’s best chance to improve is to lose as many games as possible, get a high lottery draft pick and then have the ping pong balls fall the right way on lottery night. Luck plays too big a role in who’s good and who’s not.
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